The estimated revenue generated in just one week is mind-boggling.
Grand Theft Auto, or GTA for regulars, is a franchise unlike any other in the small world of video games, and everything suggests that the release of the next installment—the sixth—will further cement the series created by Rockstar Games in the history of our industry. GTA VI is set to launch on November 19 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series, but its publisher has already created a buzz by releasing two trailers that have sent shockwaves through the internet each time. Just think: the second trailer has been viewed more than 475 million times across all platforms. That’s a record, of course, and—more importantly—a great way to tell us that GTA VI is going to break all records when it launches.
The analytics firm Newzoo has even taken the liberty of speculating on what the launch of GTA VI might look like. It’s sure to be a major event—but exactly how big? By analyzing several models and drawing on various criteria—such as the franchise’s strength and the anticipation surrounding a new installment— Newzoo has estimated revenue of between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion in the first week of release, combining sales figures for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series. Newzoo doesn’t discuss the highest estimate much, preferring instead to focus on the mid-range scenario: $4.5 billion in revenue.
To reach such a figure, Newzoo anticipates sales of no fewer than 51 million copies of the game during that first week—which, it’s worth noting, is always somewhat skewed because it includes not only actual sales made during those first seven days on the market but also all pre-orders placed in the preceding weeks. This interim forecast is based on the so-called “proven sequel” model. Newzoo also puts forward a slightly more modest figure, this time based on the “sequel with performance uncertainty” model. In this scenario, sales aren’t expected to reach that high, but even this “worst-case scenario” is still based on 37 million copies sold, generating $3.25 billion in revenue. Keep in mind that all of this excludes the PC version of the game, which has still not been confirmed by Rockstar Games and could be released—based on the publisher’s track record—a full year after the console versions.
