It's still too early to celebrate, but a ceiling may have been reached.
As early as 2024, some analysts had predicted a rise in DRAM prices and, by extension, in DDR5 prices. These analysts were a little hasty. In fact, inflation didn't kick in as they expected at the end of 2024. However, as early as July 2025, worrying signs began to appear, and from autumn onwards, prices climbed at breakneck speed. In the space of a few weeks, prices for DDR5 memory sticks doubled or even tripled: for the price of 64 GB at the June 2025 rate, only 16 GB were available last December. The culprit? Artificial intelligence and the insatiable appetite of terabyte-driven models.
No one could have imagined such rapid inflation, and the entire IT industry was taken by surprise. PC manufacturers found themselves unable to maintain their prices, graphics card manufacturers ran out of essential components, while even smartphone manufacturers were handicapped in their business. In the aftermath, there was talk of shortages in NAND - the material used in our SSDs - and in certain key PCB components. The culprit was once again artificial intelligence... but the bubble may well be bursting. Oh, we're not yet talking about a return to November 2025 prices, let alone June 2025, but the easing seems real.
Towards a sustainable drop in DDR5 prices? © TrenForce
This information is reported by the VideoCardz website, which relies on several sources, including TrendForce. TrendForce reports that prices in the USA have fallen by 20% from their February/March peaks. In Germany, prices have fallen for the first time in eight months (by around 7%). Finally, in China, we're talking about a drop of between 25% and 30% on 16 GB DDR5-6000 memory sticks, which are among the most sought-after. These declines are taking place against a backdrop of relative mistrust, not of artificial intelligence, but of the gigantic contracts that may have been "signed".
Signed" in quotation marks, because OpenAI is in the doldrums for failing to fill any real orders. Sam Altman - OpenAI's CEO - had announced the purchase of 40% of the world's DRAM wafer production to power its artificial intelligence models, but all that was said was that he intended to place an order... which he had no intention of converting! While, at the same time, Google published an article on its TurboQuant algorithm, which could reduce some of the need for DRAM, it didn't take much for investors to turn away from the major memory manufacturers, led by Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. Will this be enough to bring prices down for good? Only time will tell.
